The Bitcoin Weekly Update

A forecast into what might happen to the crypto markets heading into the 2nd week of July + important information you need to know.

Fellow traders, welcome back to the AOC newsletter, in this issue we will cover:

1. The Friday Range levels and what to expect on the Monday market open

2. A HTF Analysis: Have we switched orderflow to become bullish?

3. In the event of a pullback, which level is the best to enter?

4. Some important, or not so important events that are happening this week

1. The Friday Range and what to expect on Monday when the market opens

BTC/USDT Binance 15m Chart

This is a 15m chart and it provides a detailed view of the situation, however, when we zoom out to the 1h chart, we can see that there is another level to pay attention to

BTC/USDT Binance 1h Chart

2. Have we switched to HTF Bullish market structure?

Taking a look at this chart, not only have we gotten a Higher Low, but also a Higher High

BTC/USDT Binance 1D Chart

So by most accounts, we are already bullish on the HTF, which means that the time to focus on longs over shorts is here.

Now, this does not mean to just jump into every long and forget shorts altogether, it just means that longs will likely yield easier trades as well as trades with higher magnitude for the rest of the month. Of course, this is just a hypothesis, but I do have something to back up this hypothesis. Below is an attachment of a BTC CME Futures Chart.

BTC CME Futures Chart 1D

The reason I bring this chart up is because imbalances tend to be rebalanced, and this phenomenon is seen most clearly on a CME Futures chart.

You might be wondering then, how are imbalances formed in the first place? The answer to that will come in this detailed video on how to spot what the market makers are doing on a day-to-day basis and take advantage of it. But TLDR think of it as, when the markets push higher or lower at a rapid pace, there are a huge excess of sell/buy orders that are unfulfilled. Money-loving market makers tend to need to rebalance the markets so that other players can get involved and the game can continue. And speaking about game, if you enjoy these newsletters so far and think it can be helpful to other people…

Since the first CME Futures Gap towards the upside is sitting between $27300-$28700, it can be assumed that, on a mid-term basis, or at least from a HTF perspective, that is the first target for any long swing trades taken from the $17500-$21000 level, which are really good buying prices in a 2-5 year timeline. Of course, it could still go lower on a macro scale, and the bear market bottom, imo, can still be lower, like $10000 Bitcoin levels, but that does not discount the fact that this first HTF target for longs will make a lot of money for many people, between 50%-65% gains for most people.

3. In the event of a pullback, where should we enter?

Binance BTC/USDT 4h Chart

Based on the chart above, the levels I would start scaling into a long, if you aren’t already in one, is at $20600 (0.5 Fib) and $19800 (0.705 Fib + previous swing low, i.e. liquidity). If I had to pick one level over the other, it would definitely be $19800 because it has more confluence with overall market structure. If price doesn’t hold the 0.786 fib, or if market structure continues to be bearish after taking out the 0.786, then expect HTF market bias to shift towards bearish once again. However, I do not expect that to happen this week, but if I do see signs, there will definitely be another post from me, so make sure you subscribe.

4. Some news to pay attention to this week

Firstly, based on the Federal Reserve’s calendar, there isn’t anything remarkable going on this week. The Fed’s meetings and announcements are the most important statements in the entire markets right now, and this post goes over why.

Now, for the real news… which is that there is nothing of remark going on this week. So, price action for this week should be clean and traders will have nothing much to worry about.

The only piece of news I could find which is of significance this week is that OGN 0.00%↑ is doing an airdrop this week, and that there will be an Ethereum conference going on next week. But other than that, we are all good to go.

If you haven’t already, make sure you check out the AOC Academy, a crypto trading group and education program that will level up your trading game by a huge margin.

Until then, trade safe, and may the gains be with you.

- AOC