A Bitcoin Forecast (July 3 2022 - July 10 2022)

An analysis into what to expect for the first week of July for Bitcoin - and subsequently - the crypto markets as a whole

Greetings, and welcome to the first ever newsletter of The Art of Crypto. In this post you’re going to get an understanding of:

1. What you can expect Bitcoin to do on Monday (July 4 2022)

2. The key levels where the best trades can be based from

3. An event on Wednesday that will likely cascade the markets downwards, likely.

Bitcoin’s Monday Move

First thing you need to identify is where the prior week’s Friday high and low are located, based on the New York time.

A core teaching in the AOC Academy is that on most weeks, price movements during the weekend almost always stays within the high and low of Friday. This means that most weekends will be really boring and you shouldn’t be trading them… at least not until either Friday’s low or high gets violated. Usually, this happens some time during Sundays most weekends.

If the high gets violated, you look for a short, and vice versa for the other scenario.

This is because the move that happens during the weekend tends to be a “fake move”, while the real move happens on Monday, once the markets open and the market makers are back to work.

And based on the statistics, most real moves tend to go into the opposite direction of the fake moves.

This is, of course, just a summary of the concept, and there is much more nuance to this concept than what has been said in the last 2 paragraphs and how you can utilise this theory to much greater effect and profit. And this is where you can learn more.

So… Monday’s Move

Will likely take out the low at $18600 before any kind of up reversal move.

But… will it actually reverse to any kind of significant degree?

That is the question isn’t it?

To figure out the answer to that we need to look a little further out.

But if I had to bet my own money, I would say that the up move will be short-lived and likely to not be strong in magnitude.

Let’s discuss the reasons why.

First thing to take a look at…

These candle lows

Immediately, you must be wondering, what the f*ck kind of difference does that $50 make. But patience, young one, it matters a lot.

Notice how the recent liquidation event from a couple weeks ago came only as low as $17622, this means that it did not take out the liquidity sitting below $17572.

This means that there are relatively equal lows at the $17600 level.

Which, if you’ve been paying attention to the AOC teachings, means theres prime liquidity at those levels, which the markets are likely to revisit to clear the liquidity.

However, one word of advice I will give to you guys is this, tomorrow (July 4) is a bank holiday in the USA. Due to this, prices will likely be super choppy and lack direction, until Tuesday. But if we’re gonna talk about Tuesday, it’s time to talk about the…

Second thing

The FOMC Meeting by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday will likely move the markets towards the downside, while disregarding the Midweek Reversal theory (which states that on most weeks, the high of the week tends to be priced in before Wednesday).

The entire financial markets are on-edge - to put it mildly - and have been on-edge for the last few months.

The Federal Reserve’s highly hawkish (super high interest rates to combat inflation) stance on the financial markets means that short-term price movements will be almost entirely under the mercy of the Fed’s words.

Add that to the fact that the Fed has pretty much committed to selling off $30 billion - $60 billion of assets under their balance sheet for the near future, means that macroeconomic conditions right now are not conducive for upwards price movements.

Sounds bad, should I be worried?

Well, until the Fed changes their stance to one that favours equity markets and risk-on assets more, we should continue to expect downwards price movements. In the upcoming week I will be writing an article on how we can take advantage of the Fed’s stance on monetary policy to make some juicy money, so…

However, that does not mean the end of the world, since we as traders can make money both ways.

Hence, my recommendation is not to trade on Monday.

Look for long trades on Tuesday, because it is the only day of this week where longs might play out in your favour.

De-risking from longs on Wednesday and looking for shorts and riding them into the end of the week. More likely than not shorts are going to be the more meaningful, higher magnitude move of this week.

Trades taken should be of the intraday or short-term nature as current market conditions do not favour swing trades, and you will make much more money going on the LTF (<15m) than the HTF (>1h).

And of course, if you haven’t already, join the trading group that will change your life, where the AOC team will be there to guide you through any type of market conditions, and ensure you make money no matter what *wink*, so I will see you inside.